Practices:Delphi survey

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The '''Delphi Survey''' is a particular collaborative process that is designed to improve group communications about a complex problem or topic. The objectives of a Delphi process are three-fold: (1) to gather the information which is needed to deal with the problem or topic and fill in the resulting knowledge structure; (2) to make sure this information can be understood by the many different backgrounds of the contributors; (3) to expose agreements and disagreements and trying to come up with various recommendations for actions of various types.
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Delphi method is a version of survey analysis that involves repetitive questioning of respondents. Delphi researchers aim to predict and explore alternative future developments, the probability of their occurrence and their desirability. Delphi studies are action-oriented meant to affect actions or thoughts of decision makers. Herman Kann developed the Delphi Survey Method within RAND Corporation in early 1960s.  
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==The FOR-LEARN Guide to the Delphi method==
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The Delphi method involves gathering of what might be a very large group of participants to consider a complex problem, usually about five people in each area of special knowledge or expertise needed to present and share information about the problem and various solutions to it. A knowledge structure allows the participants to place their comments, insights, and concerns in the appropriate location so a large involved discussion is easy to follow. Individual participants, usually anonymous when authoring items and when voting, have the ability to vote on contributions so the group can determine what specific things they agree or disagree on.
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''This is a summary of the article on the Delphi Method from the FOR-LEARN guide. To read the full article go [http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/4_methodology/meth_delphi.htm here].''
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===Overall description===
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In the past, the Delphi Survey was largely done by paper and pencil communications and is now often done on the Web.  Since the computer process or paper process keeps track of the contributions, what each individual has contributes, what they have read or seen, every participant can participate asynchronously at a time and place convenient for them.  
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The Delphi method is based on structural surveys and makes use of information from the experience and knowledge of the participants, who are mainly experts. It therefore yields both qualitative and quantitative results and draws on exploratory, predictive even normative elements. Delphi is an expert survey in two or more 'rounds' in which, in the second and later rounds of the survey the results of the previous round are given as feedback.
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Delphi studies tackle issues formulated in statements about which uncertain and incomplete knowledge exists. They involve making judgments in the face of uncertainty by large number of experts selected based on knowledge and experience. The assumption is that self-fulfilling and self-destroying prophecies will be thus developed, thus shaping or even 'creating' the future. A Delphi study usually involves experts from business, government, research associations and any other stakeholders of a specific field under debate.  
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== Definitional aspects ==
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Main article: Definitional aspects of the Delphi method
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The basic Delphi concept is the design of a collaborative communication structure and process that is tailored to the nature of the problem and the nature of the group. Anonymity of the responses is one fundamental property so that people will feel free to express themselves and to be able to expose ideas that could turn out to be stupid as well as brilliant. The typical view of Delphi is that it has a round structure and goes through at least three phases:
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<br>1. Exploring the problem and exposing new insights and additional relevant material.
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<br>2. Gaining a collective understanding of the material generated.
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<br>3. Evaluating the material and hopefully reaching a consensus.
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===When is this method appropriate?===
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Many of the concepts underlying the Delphi Process have been adopted in other related methods: Prediction Markets, Recommender Systems, Collaborative Tagging or Folksonomies, and other Collaborative Systems. Over the past forty years, a number of specific Delphi Structures have been designed and are very popular in terms of successful usage. This includes the conditional forecasting of trends where the emphasis is generating the conditions that affect the trend forecast.  A second is a problem solving Delphi structure to come up with an evaluated list of alternatives or options. The third is the Policy Delphi which is devoted to determining the alternative and complementary policy options to a policy issue and the arguments supporting each one.  The fourth is the example of Cross Impact Analysis for building individual and group models of interaction among future events and scenarios.  The specific area of cross impact analysis is a foundation for the creation of a Delphi based Planning process.  
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A Delphi study is usually organized when there is a need to organize a debate, to collect and synthesize opinions and to achieve a degree of convergence. This is the case when there is not a lot of evidence about possible developments, or when long-term issues are involved. Also, common incentives for using the method are the intention to produce statistical significant results, or the will to involve a large number of people in processes.  
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===Step by Step guide===
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=== Delphi like processes ===
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Developing a classical Delphi study usually involves running the following steps:
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''Main article: [[Delphi like processes]]''
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* Selection of the subject to forecast (one or more thematic fields);
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* Definition of the procedure;
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* Formulation of the statements and questions;
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* Administration of the questionnaire;
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* Analysis of responses. In the analysis of data are used descriptive statistics (median, inter-quartile range, etc.) in order to quantitatively summarize the set data and to anticipate possible developments of the characteristics / variables measured.
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===Resources needed===
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The name of Delphi was not chosen by the inventors of the method at RAND (Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey) but by their fellow professionals, since it was commonly used for future predictions. The strange name affixed to the Delphi process has not been favorable for the spread of this method.  What has happened as a result is that many of the premises of Delphi have been rediscovered or renamed under other methods to use group processes to try to obtain some level of collective intelligence.  This is the concept that the group can reach a higher quality result than any individual in the group would have acting alone (Hiltz and Turoff, 1978). The most common Delphi derivatives today are: collaborative tagging or folksonomies and recommender systems, prediction markets, wikis and collaborative systems for humans.
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The costs depends on the number of experts, the length of questionnaire, type of technology used. A Delphi can take between three weeks and 3-4 months. The organizers need management skills, neutrality and to be open to creativity.
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===Pros and cons===
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=== Examples of Delphi structures ===
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Supporters of the Delphi study underline certain advantages in using the method:
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Main article: Examples of Delphi structures
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* It’s a credible and popular approach for policy-makers.
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There are a number of "classic" structures that have been used very successfully many times in the past forty years and have been the basis of a number of proprietary organizational studies. They can each be used on a wide range of similar problems. Some of them have been utilized in online exercises using bulletin boards and auxiliary software such as survey packages. A few have been fully implemented in software.
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* It forces people to think about long term issues.
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* It highlights clearly whether there is a consensus on an issue or not.  
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* The judgment allows for analyses, rankings and priority–settings.
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At the same time, there are limits to using the method. Certain statements or forecasts cannot be assessed even by accomplished experts, making the Delphi study pointless. At the same time, if the Delphi is not well designed it will produce poor quality information and might compromise the entire Foresight activity. Other criticisms are aimed at the fact that Delphi studies are time-consuming, labour intensive and require expert preparation, or that many participants might drop-out during the process.  
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===Complementary methods===
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The following are the general types of Delphi processes that apply to a large number of applications:
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The Delphi method implies identifying statements (topics) that are relevant for the future. Therefore, creativity methods (e.g. brainstorming, 6-3-5 or others), scenarios or key technology can be used in the preparatory phase to define these statements. Data from desktop studies: literature research, patent analysis or bibliometrics can be added. In the analytical phase, different modelling or statistical methods (calculation, rankings, correlations) or the re-building of scenarios as well as pseudo-roadmaps can be used. For comments or additional explanations, qualitative analyses are necessary. A SWOT analysis can be based on the results.
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* Trend Delphi: produces a forecast of a trend along with the mental model of the group making the extrapolation of the trend curve into the future.
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* Problem Solving Delphi: Collects solutions to the problem which are rescaled to a group interval scale based upon individuals ranking or paired comparisons. Use voting to focus discussion on items that need it.
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* Policy Delphi: seeks policy resolutions and the strongest pro and con evidence or arguments to support each policy resolution.
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* Cross Impact Modeling: Collaborative building of a model of the future possible outcomes of a set of unique events.  
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==Sea also==
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== Sea also ==
[[Practices:Environmental Scanning & Monitoring|Environmental Scanning & Monitoring]]<br>
[[Practices:Environmental Scanning & Monitoring|Environmental Scanning & Monitoring]]<br>
[[Practices:System Dynamics|System Dynamics]]<br>
[[Practices:System Dynamics|System Dynamics]]<br>

Revision as of 06:30, 27 June 2010

The Delphi Survey is a particular collaborative process that is designed to improve group communications about a complex problem or topic. The objectives of a Delphi process are three-fold: (1) to gather the information which is needed to deal with the problem or topic and fill in the resulting knowledge structure; (2) to make sure this information can be understood by the many different backgrounds of the contributors; (3) to expose agreements and disagreements and trying to come up with various recommendations for actions of various types.

The Delphi method involves gathering of what might be a very large group of participants to consider a complex problem, usually about five people in each area of special knowledge or expertise needed to present and share information about the problem and various solutions to it. A knowledge structure allows the participants to place their comments, insights, and concerns in the appropriate location so a large involved discussion is easy to follow. Individual participants, usually anonymous when authoring items and when voting, have the ability to vote on contributions so the group can determine what specific things they agree or disagree on.

In the past, the Delphi Survey was largely done by paper and pencil communications and is now often done on the Web. Since the computer process or paper process keeps track of the contributions, what each individual has contributes, what they have read or seen, every participant can participate asynchronously at a time and place convenient for them.

Contents

Definitional aspects

Main article: Definitional aspects of the Delphi method The basic Delphi concept is the design of a collaborative communication structure and process that is tailored to the nature of the problem and the nature of the group. Anonymity of the responses is one fundamental property so that people will feel free to express themselves and to be able to expose ideas that could turn out to be stupid as well as brilliant. The typical view of Delphi is that it has a round structure and goes through at least three phases:
1. Exploring the problem and exposing new insights and additional relevant material.
2. Gaining a collective understanding of the material generated.
3. Evaluating the material and hopefully reaching a consensus.

Many of the concepts underlying the Delphi Process have been adopted in other related methods: Prediction Markets, Recommender Systems, Collaborative Tagging or Folksonomies, and other Collaborative Systems. Over the past forty years, a number of specific Delphi Structures have been designed and are very popular in terms of successful usage. This includes the conditional forecasting of trends where the emphasis is generating the conditions that affect the trend forecast. A second is a problem solving Delphi structure to come up with an evaluated list of alternatives or options. The third is the Policy Delphi which is devoted to determining the alternative and complementary policy options to a policy issue and the arguments supporting each one. The fourth is the example of Cross Impact Analysis for building individual and group models of interaction among future events and scenarios. The specific area of cross impact analysis is a foundation for the creation of a Delphi based Planning process.

Delphi like processes

Main article: Delphi like processes

The name of Delphi was not chosen by the inventors of the method at RAND (Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey) but by their fellow professionals, since it was commonly used for future predictions. The strange name affixed to the Delphi process has not been favorable for the spread of this method. What has happened as a result is that many of the premises of Delphi have been rediscovered or renamed under other methods to use group processes to try to obtain some level of collective intelligence. This is the concept that the group can reach a higher quality result than any individual in the group would have acting alone (Hiltz and Turoff, 1978). The most common Delphi derivatives today are: collaborative tagging or folksonomies and recommender systems, prediction markets, wikis and collaborative systems for humans.

Examples of Delphi structures

Main article: Examples of Delphi structures There are a number of "classic" structures that have been used very successfully many times in the past forty years and have been the basis of a number of proprietary organizational studies. They can each be used on a wide range of similar problems. Some of them have been utilized in online exercises using bulletin boards and auxiliary software such as survey packages. A few have been fully implemented in software.

The following are the general types of Delphi processes that apply to a large number of applications:

  • Trend Delphi: produces a forecast of a trend along with the mental model of the group making the extrapolation of the trend curve into the future.
  • Problem Solving Delphi: Collects solutions to the problem which are rescaled to a group interval scale based upon individuals ranking or paired comparisons. Use voting to focus discussion on items that need it.
  • Policy Delphi: seeks policy resolutions and the strongest pro and con evidence or arguments to support each policy resolution.
  • Cross Impact Modeling: Collaborative building of a model of the future possible outcomes of a set of unique events.

Sea also

Environmental Scanning & Monitoring
System Dynamics
Structural Analysis
Agent Modelling
SWOT Analysis
Trend Intra & Extrapolation
Modelling & Simulation
Gaming
Creativity Methods
Backcasting
S&T Roadmapping
Critical & Key Technology Study
Scenario Building
Morphological Analysis & Relevance Trees
Cross-Impact Analysis
Multi-Criteria Analysis

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