Practices:Delphi survey

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Delphi method is a version of survey analysis that involves repetitive questioning of respondents. Delphi researchers aim to predict and explore alternative future developments, the probability of their occurrence and their desirability. Delphi studies are action-oriented meant to affect actions or thoughts of decision makers. Herman Kann developed the Delphi Survey Method within RAND Corporation in early 1960s.  
Delphi method is a version of survey analysis that involves repetitive questioning of respondents. Delphi researchers aim to predict and explore alternative future developments, the probability of their occurrence and their desirability. Delphi studies are action-oriented meant to affect actions or thoughts of decision makers. Herman Kann developed the Delphi Survey Method within RAND Corporation in early 1960s.  
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==The FOR-LEARN Guide to Expert Panels==
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==The FOR-LEARN Guide to the Delphi method==
''This is a summary of the article on the Delphi Method from the FOR-LEARN guide. To read the full article go [http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/4_methodology/meth_delphi.htm here].''
''This is a summary of the article on the Delphi Method from the FOR-LEARN guide. To read the full article go [http://forlearn.jrc.ec.europa.eu/guide/4_methodology/meth_delphi.htm here].''

Revision as of 01:27, 29 April 2010

Delphi method is a version of survey analysis that involves repetitive questioning of respondents. Delphi researchers aim to predict and explore alternative future developments, the probability of their occurrence and their desirability. Delphi studies are action-oriented meant to affect actions or thoughts of decision makers. Herman Kann developed the Delphi Survey Method within RAND Corporation in early 1960s.

Contents

The FOR-LEARN Guide to the Delphi method

This is a summary of the article on the Delphi Method from the FOR-LEARN guide. To read the full article go here.

Overall description

The Delphi method is based on structural surveys and makes use of information from the experience and knowledge of the participants, who are mainly experts. It therefore yields both qualitative and quantitative results and draws on exploratory, predictive even normative elements. Delphi is an expert survey in two or more 'rounds' in which, in the second and later rounds of the survey the results of the previous round are given as feedback.

Delphi studies tackle issues formulated in statements about which uncertain and incomplete knowledge exists. They involve making judgments in the face of uncertainty by large number of experts selected based on knowledge and experience. The assumption is that self-fulfilling and self-destroying prophecies will be thus developed, thus shaping or even 'creating' the future. A Delphi study usually involves experts from business, government, research associations and any other stakeholders of a specific field under debate.

When is this method appropriate?

A Delphi study is usually organized when there is a need to organize a debate, to collect and synthesize opinions and to achieve a degree of convergence. This is the case when there is not a lot of evidence about possible developments, or when long-term issues are involved. Also, common incentives for using the method are the intention to produce statistical significant results, or the will to involve a large number of people in processes.

Step by Step guide

Developing a classical Delphi study usually involves running the following steps:

  • Selection of the subject to forecast (one or more thematic fields);
  • Definition of the procedure;
  • Formulation of the statements and questions;
  • Administration of the questionnaire;
  • Analysis of responses. In the analysis of data are used descriptive statistics (median, inter-quartile range, etc.) in order to quantitatively summarize the set data and to anticipate possible developments of the characteristics / variables measured.

Resources needed

The costs depends on the number of experts, the length of questionnaire, type of technology used. A Delphi can take between three weeks and 3-4 months. The organizers need management skills, neutrality and to be open to creativity.

Pros and cons

Supporters of the Delphi study underline certain advantages in using the method:

  • It’s a credible and popular approach for policy-makers.
  • It forces people to think about long term issues.
  • It highlights clearly whether there is a consensus on an issue or not.
  • The judgment allows for analyses, rankings and priority–settings.

At the same time, there are limits to using the method. Certain statements or forecasts cannot be assessed even by accomplished experts, making the Delphi study pointless. At the same time, if the Delphi is not well designed it will produce poor quality information and might compromise the entire Foresight activity. Other criticisms are aimed at the fact that Delphi studies are time-consuming, labour intensive and require expert preparation, or that many participants might drop-out during the process.

Complementary methods

The Delphi method implies identifying statements (topics) that are relevant for the future. Therefore, creativity methods (e.g. brainstorming, 6-3-5 or others), scenarios or key technology can be used in the preparatory phase to define these statements. Data from desktop studies: literature research, patent analysis or bibliometrics can be added. In the analytical phase, different modelling or statistical methods (calculation, rankings, correlations) or the re-building of scenarios as well as pseudo-roadmaps can be used. For comments or additional explanations, qualitative analyses are necessary. A SWOT analysis can be based on the results.

Sea also

Environmental Scanning & Monitoring
System Dynamics
Structural Analysis
Agent Modelling
SWOT Analysis
Trend Intra & Extrapolation
Modelling & Simulation
Gaming
Creativity Methods
Backcasting
S&T Roadmapping
Critical & Key Technology Study
Scenario Building
Morphological Analysis & Relevance Trees
Cross-Impact Analysis
Multi-Criteria Analysis

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