Narrative:The wiki page for APEC Center for Technology Foresight

From FORwiki

Jump to: navigation, search

The wiki page for APEC Center for Technology Foresight (APEC CTF)


APEC-CTF

Established as a project of the Industrial Science and Technology Workingh Group (ISTWG) in 1998, hosted by the National Science and Technology Development Agency, the APEC CTF aims to develop and diffuse foresight capability and leading edge planning tools to prepare APEC Economies for rapid change and major societal challanges through:

● APEC-wide foresight projects

● Regional, sectoral, and ognaizational forsight

● State-of-the-art foresight training

● National and regional strategy planning

From 2009 onwards, the center has been hosted by the National Science Technology and Innovation Policy Office (STI) becomes the new host of the center.

Visit APEC-CTF website for more information.


APEC-CTF's wiki

The wiki system was introduced by Science and Technology Knowledge Services (STKS), NSTDA in 2008 and has been adopted since then by the center as one of many tools for knowledge management. The system has been employed in many projects ranging from foresight research, foresight training, documents/publications deposition, national science and technology policy formulation, manpower/infrastructure plan development, public STI forum, to personal space.

Belows are some examples of projects conducted by APEC-CTF:

Roadmapping Converging Technologies to Combat Emerging Infectious Diseases

In 2006, the Center proposed a project “Roadmapping Converging Technologies to Combat Emerging Infectious Diseases” to The Industrial Science and Technology Working Group of APEC (APEC ISTWG), upon prior consultation with the APEC Health Task Force (now Health Working Group) early that year. This project aims to enhance the region’s capacity in using converging technologies to contribute to the prevention and management of emerging infectious diseases that could become widespread in the APEC region. The methods chosen were bibliometric analysis, online survey, scenarios and technology roadmapping.

In the first stage, after review and scoping by bibliometric analysis and online survey, the project developed scenarios in order to identify a group of technology applications that have high impact to combat EIDs. Then in the second stage through workshops in Japan and Chinese Taipei in 2007 experts in various technological areas throughout APEC were invited to jointly build roadmaps of these technologies.

The final symposium was arranged in Bangkok Thailand, December 2007. Participants were 90 APEC experts across many disciplines: academics, policy makers, technologists, NGOs, and representatives from the private sector. where the project findings were reported and discussed. Throughout the project many kinds of challenges in developing and using these converging technologies across the region were identified. It was also identified that certain types of networking and collaboration, under the strong commitment to share experience by all the players in the region will be the key success factor in combating EIDs.

The project was very successful in getting good quality expertise from across the APEC region and even from relevant organizations outside APEC. There was enormous information received from the 4 events: the scenario workshop, two technology roadmapping workshops, and one final symposium. In order to make significant application of the knowledge from the project, the project report was designed according to the EID life cycle model proposed by Dr. Richard Silberglitt at the Scenario Workshop, together with results from the six technology roadmaps developed during the project. Experts who represent different areas of expertise and who actually participated and contributed to the project at different times were then carefully chosen to participate in the writing of the final report.

An authors meeting was arranged in Bangkok, Thailand in June 2008 to allow authors to discuss the progress of each chapter. The full report was then edited and completed afterward. The full report of the project was published in November 2008. It was then distributed to the stakeholders for consideration and further usage in policy making process. The booklet in Thai version was in preparation. It describes scenarios, EID life cycle model, the contribution of technologies in combating EIDs, and suggestions on post-foresight activities. Moreover, the result of the project was presented to The Senate Standing Committee on Public Health on March 13th, 2009.

Futures of Low Carbon Society: Climate Change and Strategies for Economies in APEC Beyond 2050

(Visit the project's website here.

This project was proposed to APEC ISTWG by APEC Center for Technology Foresight, Thailand and co-sponsored by Hong Kong, China; Japan; P.R. China; Viet Nam; Philippines; Brunei Darussalam; Chinese Taipei; USA; and Korea. The purpose of this project is to conduct a region-wide foresight research on the future society where low carbon economy and adaptive lifestyle becomes the principal driver governing trade and development. A Delphi survey and workshop are adopted to formulate future scenarios for the Asia-Pacific region that illustrate social, economical and political demand. Science and technology developments, including technology transfer, that respond to such demand will be discussed in the subsequent workshop. The expected outcome includes short, middle, and long term strategies for the region in technological development.

The scoping workshop organized in collaboration with the University of Hong Kong in Hong Kong, China during 13 -14 August, 2008. The workshop has been arranged in roundtable-style meeting between key members and an observer from APEC economies (P.R. China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; Republic of Korea; Malaysia; New Zealand; Philippines; Chinese Taipei; Thailand; Vietnam; and Macao, China). The meeting was organized to discuss the project strategies and to set the scope for the subsequent activities. The participants agreed with the keyword “Low Carbon Society or LCS” and focus on personal lifestyle and social systems, international trade, economic systems, effective governance (political stability and international cohesion), furthermore adaptation include not only science and technology but also social and economic or socioeconomic adaptation.

The international working group meeting was organized in Bangkok during 13-14 Oct 08 with the active contribution from working group members. There were altogether 40 participants repersenting key members from APEC economies (Chinese Taipei; P.R. China; Macao, China; Republic of Korea; Russia; Viet Nam; Hong Kong, China; Philippines; and Thailand). The survey statements were classified into 5 core categories, namely, Climate change & its impacts, Migration, rural life & natural resources, Society/health, Trade of goods & services and Housing & construction/urban life/transportation. Under each category there were 4-9 Delphi statements and each statement had its own sub-questions. This is a significant progress towards the completion of Real-Time (RT) Delphi survey.

Five Thai Working Group Roundtable Meetings were held to make futher structural adjustment and detailed refinement on Delphi statements and their questions. The process took a few months of discussions and deliberations to complete the RT Delphi statements. Then we were ready to launch the survey online during June 15 - August 30, 2009.

RT Delphi Survey was to gather opinions from a wide range of experts in the APEC region to provide initial inputs for the future scenarios. RT-Delphi Survey is roundless. Participated experts can answer the questions as many times as they like and can observe the results so fas as well as comments from other participants in real time. Anonimity is maintained in the sense that no one knows who elas is participating and who gave which answer. The results from RT Delphi survey analysis were used as an input in the Low Carbon Society Scenario Workshop.

The Low Carbon Society Scenario Workshop aimed to identify main socio-economic drivers relevant and derived from climate change. It is to establish the likelihood of low-carbon society and generate momentous essences for possible scenarios of adaptive lifestyle beyond 2050 in the 5 areas asa mention above. The workshop brought together 50 of Asia Pacific's key expets from a variety of disciplines to take part in a three-day exercise in Phuket from 2-4 November 2009.

In the workshop, the participants were divided into 5 groups to discuss the 5 aspects of LCS identified via the RT Delphi suvery.

Climate change & its impacts — The world becomes more predictable as advances in climate modeling technology provide greater certainty when projecting climate trends and their impacts. By 2050, modeling accuracy increases to 98-100% due to a 10,000-fold expansion in computer processing power. More accurate and  reliable forecasting information allows policy makers and the public to better prepare for the longer-term changes caused by the changing climate. ...
Housing and construction/urban lifestyle/transportation — Technological advances are critical drivers to low-carbon solutions for urban areas. Artificial intelligence grows in importance allowing computers to manager a greater percentage of complex task. The use of nanotechnology fo manufacturing of personal goos like clothing, and for air and water filtration, will become widespread contributing to reductions in emissions related to transportation logistics. Technological advances will also continue to fuel improved wellness ans healthcare, and growth in personalized medicine. ...
Migration, rural life and natural resources — Land zoning plays a critical role in assuring the rural communities maintain a compeititve land advantage for food production. Sustainable agricultural productivity becomes the norm, enhanced by a high level of education among farmers, and their commitment to "computerized farming" and other technological advances. ...
Society and health — National gevernments have limited success in demonstrating an ability to react quickly to critical issuesaffecting the planet. Instead, significant social and economic transformation towards a LCS occurs at sub-national levels becauce of initiatives undertaken by individuals, communities, villages, businesses (small and medium) and even actions from the street. ...
Trading of goods and services — Ninety percent of Asia Pacific's energy needs are fed by renewable sources such as solar, algae and geothermal. Nuclear fusin has become a realistic energy sources. Providers of goods and services stress their commitment to green production techniques, energy efficiency and clean transportation. Their is a decoupling of economic growth from environmental impacts. APEC citizens now require the environment tp become a beneficiary, not a casualty, of economic growth.

The participants also recommended several other posiible mechanisms for regional linkages e.g. climate modeling data sharing and transferring, a regional network of "Center of R&D Excellence" etc.



● Thailand's Nanotechnology Roadmapping

● Future Fuel Technology

● Technology Watch - Horizon Magazines (in Thai)


Dr. Nares Damrongchai, the executive director of the center, has been overseen and provided suggestions on maintenance and improvement of the wiki. I, as an active IT user, have been responsible as an administrator to ensure the consistent of the wiki structure with support from STKS.

The system is designed as an internal space for staff. Therefore the client/outsider is not involved in the design of the system. However, there are some exceptional cases especially those actively involve in the development of some projects.

The STI office and APEC CTF staff are encouraged to use the wiki as part of their routine works, on voluntary basis. They are free to upload files onto the system such as published articles, e-books, meeting minutes, interview notes, presentation files, roadmaps, scenarios etc. This is based on the information sharing basis. In addition, some sections of wiki possess discussion areas in order for the staff to exchange their opinions.

--Suchat Udomsopagit 13:57, 30 March 2010 (UTC)

Personal tools