MLW:Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective

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Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective is a workshop to be organized in Bucharest, and to be coordinated by Prof. Paul Dragos Aligica.

Contents

Concept

There are as many opinions as there are experts.
Franklin D Roosevelt
The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.
Stephen Hawking

The workshop explores the issue of expert knowledge and predictions using conceptual, theoretical and methodological perspectives offered by social sciences. The agenda is organized around a set of questions such as:

What is the role of expert judgment in the important task of social and strategic forecasting? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the methods and approaches through which expert predictions and forecasts are produced? What are the strengths of expert knowledge aggregation procedures? What are their limits? Is the claim of expertise in forecasting--by academics or intelligence analysts, independent pundits, journalists or institutional specialists— legitimate? In what measure? What are the limits of social prediction, be it through aggregative methods or individual approaches? Is there a direct correlation between the knowledge of the expert and the quality of his or her forecasts? How could one assess the link expert knowledge – forecasting – policy making?

To respond to the challenges posed by these and other similar questions, a group of top international scholars of social sciences, expertise studies and prediction methods and theory have been invited to Bucharest for a three day workshop.

Participants

Programme

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

See also

Practices:Delphi survey

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