MLW:Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective

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Randall J. Jones, Jr., ''Professor'', Department of Political Science - University of Oklahoma
Randall J. Jones, Jr., ''Professor'', Department of Political Science - University of Oklahoma
Andreas Graefe, ''Researcher'' at the Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis - Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Andreas Graefe, ''Researcher'' - Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
=== Programme ===
=== Programme ===

Revision as of 16:24, 10 November 2010

Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective is a workshop which is going to be organized in Bucharest, between November 19th and November 21th, and coordinated by Prof. Paul Dragos Aligica.



There are as many opinions as there are experts.
Franklin D Roosevelt
The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.
Stephen Hawking

The workshop explores the issue of expert knowledge and predictions using conceptual, theoretical and methodological perspectives offered by social sciences. The agenda is organized around a set of questions such as:

What is the role of expert judgment in the important task of social and strategic forecasting? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the methods and approaches through which expert predictions and forecasts are produced? What are the strengths of expert knowledge aggregation procedures? What are their limits? Is the claim of expertise in forecasting--by academics or intelligence analysts, independent pundits, journalists or institutional specialists— legitimate? In what measure? What are the limits of social prediction, be it through aggregative methods or individual approaches? Is there a direct correlation between the knowledge of the expert and the quality of his or her forecasts? How could one assess the link expert knowledge – forecasting – policy making?

To respond to the challenges posed by these and other similar questions, a group of top international scholars of social sciences, expertise studies and prediction methods and theory have been invited to Bucharest for a three day workshop.


Scott Armstrong, Professor, Wharton School of Business - University of Pennsylvania

Mark Blyth, Professor, Brown University and Faculty Fellow at the Watson Institute

Robert Evans, Lecturer, Cardiff School of Social Sciences

Kesten C. Green, Senior Lecturer, International Graduate School of Business - University of South Australia

Peter Bishop, Associate Professor of Strategic Foresight and Coordinator of the graduate program in Futures Studies - University of Houston.

Alfred G. Cuzán, Professor and Chairman, Department of Government - University of West Florida

Randall J. Jones, Jr., Professor, Department of Political Science - University of Oklahoma

Andreas Graefe, Researcher - Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology


Day 1

19.00 Welcome cocktail

Day 2

9:00 - 9:15 A welcome speech by Adrian Curaj
Introducing the programme of the conference-workshop and explaining the logic and role of the event by putting it in the larger context of the future-oriented “Quality and Leadership in Romanian Higher Education” project by Radu Gheorghiu and Paul Dragos Aligica, the moderator of the event.

9:15 - 10:30 The Black Swan and Beyond: the limits of predicting human action in an ever-increasing web of complexity
by Mark Blyth
9:15 - 9:45 Mark Blyth presentation
9:45 - 10:30 Questions, answers, comments

10:30 - 10:45 Break

10:45 - 12:00 Global Warming: scientific forecasting or forecasting by scientists?
by Scott Armstrong
10:45 - 11:15 Scott Armstrong presentation
11:15 - 12:00 Questions, answers, comments

12:00 - 13:00 Lunch Break

13:00 - 14:15 Forecasts and Judgement: What experts can and can’t do
by Robert Evans
13:00 - 13:30 Robert Evans presentation
13:30 - 14:15 Questions, answers, comments

14:15 - 14:30 Break

14:30 - 15:45 Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts: politics, business, military...
by Kesten C. Green
14:30 - 15:00 Kesten C. Green presentation
15:00 - 15:45 Questions, answers, comments

15:45 - 16:00 Break

16:00 - 17:15 Validating the quality of scenario methods
by Peter Bishop
16:00 - 16:30 Peter Bishop presentation
16:30 - 17:15 Questions, answers, comments

Day 3

9:00 - 11:00 Electoral and Political Forecasting: Pollywote and Beyond

The Fiscal Model and Case Study. The 2010 contest for the US congress: comparing experts with models
by Alfred G. Cuzán

The use of expert judgment in forecasting elections
by Randall J. Jones, Jr.

Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Ability to Handle Issues
by Andreas Graefe

9:00 - 10:00 Presentations
10:00 - 10:45 Questions, answers, comments

11:00 – 11:15 Break

11:15 - 12:30 Final colloquium: Comments, conclusions, further steps

12:30 Lunch and the Conclusion of the Event

See also

Practices:Delphi survey

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