MLW:Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective

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'''9:15 -10:30 The Black Swan and Beyond: the limits of predicting human action in an ever-increasing web of complexity'''
'''9:15 -10:30 The Black Swan and Beyond: the limits of predicting human action in an ever-increasing web of complexity'''
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Mark Blyth, Professor, Brown University and Faculty Fellow at the Watson Institute
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<br>by Mark Blyth
<br>9:15 - 9:45 Mark Blyth presentation  
<br>9:15 - 9:45 Mark Blyth presentation  
<br>9:45 - 10:30 Questions, answers, comments  
<br>9:45 - 10:30 Questions, answers, comments  
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'''10:45 – 12:00 Global Warming: scientific forecasting or forecasting by scientists?'''
'''10:45 – 12:00 Global Warming: scientific forecasting or forecasting by scientists?'''
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Scott Armstrong, Professor , Wharton School of Business  - University of Pennsylvania.
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<br>by Scott Armstrong, Professor
<br>10:45 -11:15 Scott Armstrong presentation  
<br>10:45 -11:15 Scott Armstrong presentation  
<br>11:15- 12:00 Questions, answers, comments  
<br>11:15- 12:00 Questions, answers, comments  
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'''13:00 – 14:15 Forecasts and Judgement: What experts can and can’t do'''
'''13:00 – 14:15 Forecasts and Judgement: What experts can and can’t do'''
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Robert Evans, Lecturer, Cardiff School of Social Sciences
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<br>by Robert Evans
<br>13:00 -13:30 Robert Evans presentation  
<br>13:00 -13:30 Robert Evans presentation  
<br>13:30 -14:15 Questions, answers, comments  
<br>13:30 -14:15 Questions, answers, comments  
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'''14:30 - 15:45 Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts: politics, business, military...'''
'''14:30 - 15:45 Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts: politics, business, military...'''
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<br>by Kesten C. Green
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Kesten C. Green, Senior Lecturer, International Graduate School of Business, University of South Australia.
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<br>14:30 -15:00 Kesten C. Green presentation  
<br>14:30 -15:00 Kesten C. Green presentation  
<br>15:00 -15:45 Questions, answers, comments  
<br>15:00 -15:45 Questions, answers, comments  
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<br>by Andreas Graefe
<br>by Andreas Graefe
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<br>9:00 - 10:00 Presentations  
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9:00 - 10:00 Presentations  
<br>10:00 -10:45 Questions, answers, comments  
<br>10:00 -10:45 Questions, answers, comments  
    
    
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'''12:30 Lunch and the Conclusion of the Event'''
'''12:30 Lunch and the Conclusion of the Event'''
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'''13:30 Post-conference working group'''
 
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<br>Debriefing, preparation of written materials, post-conference action planning.
 
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Participants: the MLW core team.
 
==See also==
==See also==
[[Practices:Delphi survey]]
[[Practices:Delphi survey]]

Revision as of 09:54, 24 October 2010

Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective is a workshop to be organized in Bucharest, and to be coordinated by Prof. Paul Dragos Aligica.

Contents

Concept

There are as many opinions as there are experts.
Franklin D Roosevelt
The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.
Stephen Hawking

The workshop explores the issue of expert knowledge and predictions using conceptual, theoretical and methodological perspectives offered by social sciences. The agenda is organized around a set of questions such as:

What is the role of expert judgment in the important task of social and strategic forecasting? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the methods and approaches through which expert predictions and forecasts are produced? What are the strengths of expert knowledge aggregation procedures? What are their limits? Is the claim of expertise in forecasting--by academics or intelligence analysts, independent pundits, journalists or institutional specialists— legitimate? In what measure? What are the limits of social prediction, be it through aggregative methods or individual approaches? Is there a direct correlation between the knowledge of the expert and the quality of his or her forecasts? How could one assess the link expert knowledge – forecasting – policy making?

To respond to the challenges posed by these and other similar questions, a group of top international scholars of social sciences, expertise studies and prediction methods and theory have been invited to Bucharest for a three day workshop.

Participants

Scott Armstrong, Professor, Wharton School of Business - University of Pennsylvania

Mark Blyth, Professor, Brown University and Faculty Fellow at the Watson Institute

Kesten C. Green, Senior Lecturer, International Graduate School of Business - University of South Australia

Robert Evans, Lecturer, Cardiff School of Social Sciences

Alfred G. Cuzán, Professor and Chairman, Department of Government - University of West Florida

Randall J. Jones, Jr., Professor, Department of Political Science - University of Oklahoma

Andreas Graefe, Researcher at the Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

Programme

Day 1

19.00 Welcome cocktail

Day 2

9:00 - 9:15 A welcome speech by Adrian Curaj Introducing the programme of the conference-workshop and explaining the logic and role of the event by putting it in the larger context of the future-oriented “Quality and Leadership in Romanian Higher Education” project by Radu Gheorghiu, Dan Grosu and Paul Dragos Aligica, the moderator of the event.

9:15 -10:30 The Black Swan and Beyond: the limits of predicting human action in an ever-increasing web of complexity


by Mark Blyth
9:15 - 9:45 Mark Blyth presentation
9:45 - 10:30 Questions, answers, comments

10:30 –10:45 Break

10:45 – 12:00 Global Warming: scientific forecasting or forecasting by scientists?


by Scott Armstrong, Professor
10:45 -11:15 Scott Armstrong presentation
11:15- 12:00 Questions, answers, comments

12:00– 13:00 Lunch Break

13:00 – 14:15 Forecasts and Judgement: What experts can and can’t do


by Robert Evans
13:00 -13:30 Robert Evans presentation
13:30 -14:15 Questions, answers, comments

14:15 – 14:30 Break

14:30 - 15:45 Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts: politics, business, military...
by Kesten C. Green
14:30 -15:00 Kesten C. Green presentation
15:00 -15:45 Questions, answers, comments

15:45 -16:00 Break

16:00 – 17:00 Colloquium: comments, questions, answers

Day 3

9:00 - 11:00 Electoral and Political Forecasting: Pollywote and Beyond

The Fiscal Model and Case Study. The 2010 contest for the US congress: comparing experts with models
by Alfred G. Cuzán, Professor and Chairman, Department of Government, University of West Florida

The use of expert judgment in forecasting elections
by Randall J. Jones, Jr., Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Oklahoma

Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Ability to Handle Issues
by Andreas Graefe

9:00 - 10:00 Presentations
10:00 -10:45 Questions, answers, comments

11:00 – 11:15 Break

11:15 -12:30 Final colloquium: Comments, conclusions, further steps

12:30 Lunch and the Conclusion of the Event

See also

Practices:Delphi survey

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