Introduction to Foresight
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Project Visions and Visioning | |
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Foresight is often defined as being ‘the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits'(Ben Martin, SPRU, 1995). Another similar definition is given by Luke Georghiou describes technology foresight as ‘a systematic means of assessing those scientific and technological developments which could have a strong impact on industrial competitiveness, wealth creation and quality of life.’(Georghiou, 1996, pp. 359-377).
Dennis Loveridge implies that foresight thinking is strongly linked to system thinking. Both are influenced by behavioral traits and events are themselves regarded as systems or parts of a system. In order for future visioning to be named ‘foresight’ it has to be systematic and should be easily distinguished from day to day planning. Moreover foresight must be aimed at a longer term in time, beyond normal planning horizons, typically between five and thirty years.
Even if foresight concentrates on emerging generic technologies, that should be supported by the government, it shouldn’t be dominated by science or technology alone. The need for government support comes from the lack of funding for strategic research from private companies when it comes to emerging generic technologies.
The social impact of foresight must always be taken into account, not the usual creation of wealth. This has lead some recent foresight exercises to adopt more problem oriented perspectives from the outset, for example, focusing upon issues such as crime prevention, education and skills, ageing societies, etc.
The products of foresight go further than the presentation of scenarios and plan preparation. A crucial element is the elaboration of a strategic vision, to which persons can commit. The vision is not a utopia but ‘has to be explicit recognition and explication of the implications for present day decisions and actions’(FOREN Practical Guide to Regional Foresight). Foresight goes beyond academic or consultancy-based forecasts of the future; it complements existing decision-making and planning processes in order to increase their effectiveness.
The role of foresight is not to predict but to create a shared vision of the future, one in which stakeholders are eager to endorse by the actions they chose to take in the present. As opposed to predicting the future, foresight aims to create it. Another important aspect is that foresight is not intended to replace forecast, strategic planning or future studies but to support them, by facilitating policy-making where integration of activities across several fields is vital.
Three main drivers have been identified concerning the rapid diffusion of national foresight (Martin & Johnston, 1999, pp. 37-54).
1. Escalating industrial and economic competition
‘The primary rationale [for doing foresight] is the widespread recognition that emerging generic technologies are likely to have a revolutionary impact on industry, the economy, society and the environment over coming decades.’ (Martin, 1996, pp. 139-68)
2. Increasing pressure on governmental spending
Keeping in mind that all costs are escalating, in this case foresight aims to help the government to identify funding priorities.
3. Changing nature of knowledge production
Correcting ‘system failures’ is one of the most referred to reason for present technology foresight. ‘Technology foresight offers a means of ‘wiring up’ and strengthening the connections within the national innovation system so that knowledge can flow more freely among the constituent actors, and the system as a whole can become more effective at learning and innovating.’ (Martin and Johnston, 1999, pp. 37-54).
The potential for system-wide learning is linked to the level of interdependence between the various system actors. The degree of interdependence is, in turn, dependent upon processes that stimulate, nurture, encourage, and strengthen interactions between actors so that they become more permanent.
Other drivers worth mentioning that explain the wide spread of foresight:
Emergence of new styles of policy-making - as the world grows more dynamically complex, it is impossible for any one organization to know everything that is needed for successful policy intervention. Thus, many governments have recognized that the requisite knowledge for successful policy intervention is distributed across a wide and varied landscape of actors, and that this landscape has a role to play in policy formulation and implementation. This model encourages the shift in governance from top to bottom.
Increasing desire for anticipatory intelligence – in this case, widening perspectives, both spatially (e.g. to cover unexplored domain areas, untapped potential markets, etc.) and temporally (e.g. to encourage longer-term thinking than might normally be the case). Foresight offers new perspectives which in turn offer insights into possible opportunities and threats that might otherwise remain invisible. Also foresight offers companies and bureaucrats the advantage of being better prepared for all kinds of possible eventualities.
Building advocacy coalitions – it refers to the ability to mobilise disparate groups of actors around a particular vision. Collectivity is important here – to be taken seriously and to attract resources, actors usually need to coalesce within more or less organised coalitions in order to better argue for (or advocate) support of their particular area. Those who are organised tend to rule, while those who are disorganised tend to be ruled, therefore foresight is often used to organise advocacy coalitions around issues of particular strategic importance.
The ‘Bandwagon effects’ – it points out the advantage of having the competitive edge and the fact that no one wants to be left behind. The UNIDO and EU have played an important role in the process of diffusion.
The ‘Millennium Effect’ - governments all over the world have sought at least to appear to be preparing for the new opportunities and challenges that lay ahead in the twenty-first century.
To conclude, our understanding of foresight has shifted over the last decade, with much more emphasis now placed on the process benefits. This is reflected in the sorts of rationales offered for conducting a foresight exercise, which include addressing system failure and developing advocacy coalitions, among other things.
References
Michael Keenan, PREST, Institute of Innovation Research (IoIR), University of Manchester, UK
Georghiou, L (1996) “The UK Technology Foresight Programme”, Futures, vol. 28(4), pp. 359 - 377
Martin, B (1996) “Foresight in Science and Technology”, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, vol. 7, pp. 139 - 68
Martin, B and Johnston, R (1999): “Technology Foresight for Wiring Up the National Innovation System”, Technology Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 60, pp. 37 - 54