MLW:Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective

Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective is a workshop which is going to be organized in Bucharest, between November 19th and November 21th, and coordinated by Adrian Curaj and Paul Dragos Aligica.

Concept
There are as many opinions as there are experts. Franklin D Roosevelt The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge. Stephen Hawking

The workshop explores the issue of expert knowledge and predictions using conceptual, theoretical and methodological perspectives offered by social sciences. The agenda is organized around a set of questions such as:

What is the role of expert judgment in the important task of social and strategic forecasting? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the methods and approaches through which expert predictions and forecasts are produced? What are the strengths of expert knowledge aggregation procedures? What are their limits? Is the claim of expertise in forecasting--by academics or intelligence analysts, independent pundits, journalists or institutional specialists— legitimate? In what measure? What are the limits of social prediction, be it through aggregative methods or individual approaches? Is there a direct correlation between the knowledge of the expert and the quality of his or her forecasts? How could one assess the link expert knowledge – forecasting – policy making?

To respond to the challenges posed by these and other similar questions, a group of top international scholars of social sciences, expertise studies and prediction methods and theory have been invited to Bucharest for a three day workshop.

Participants
Speakers:
 * Scott Armstrong, Wharton School of Business - University of Pennsylvania, USA
 * Peter Bishop, University of Houston, USA
 * Mark Blyth, Brown University and Watson Institute, USA
 * Adrian Curaj, Executive Agency for Higher Education and Research Funding, Romania
 * Alfred G. Cuzán, Department of Government - University of West Florida, USA
 * Robert Evans, Cardiff School of Social Sciences, UK
 * Radu Gheorghiu, Executive Agency for Higher Education and Research Funding, Romania
 * Andreas Graefe, Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis - Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany
 * Kesten C. Green, International Graduate School of Business - University of South Australia, Australia
 * Randall J. Jones, Jr., Department of Political Science - University of Central Oklahoma, USA

Rapporteur:
 * Campbell Warden, Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias, Spain

Participants:
 * Bogdan Alexandrescu, Politehnica University of Bucharest, Romania
 * Lavinia Alexe, University of Bucharest, Romania
 * Liviu Andreescu, Executive Agency for Higher Education and Research Funding, Romania
 * Lavinia Andrei, University of Bucharest, Romania
 * Emilia Asultanei, Price Waterhouse Coopers, Romania
 * Alexandru Balasescu, Renault Technologies, Romania
 * Aurel Baloi, Central Unit of Information Analysis, Romania
 * Irina Bujor, Executive Agency for Higher Education and Research Funding, Romania
 * Mariana Chioncel, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies, Sevilla, Spain
 * Anamaria Chis, Center for Institutional Analysis and Development, Romania
 * Florin Cojocaru, Mademe Blogary, Romania
 * Miriam Costea, University of Bucharest, Romania
 * Adina Dabu, HEC School of Management, Paris, France
 * Mihaela Ghisa, Executive Agency for Higher Education and Research Funding, Romania
 * Lilia Ghitiu, Institute of Economy, Finance and Statistics, Republic of Moldova
 * Viorel Girbu, Academy of Science of Moldova, Republic of Moldova
 * Roumiana Gotseva, Foresight Alliance, UK
 * Dan Grosu, Executive Agency for Higher Education and Research Funding, Romania
 * Diana Grozav, Agency for Innovation and Technology Transfer, Republic of Moldova
 * Andrei Ilas, Credit-Mutuel, Romania
 * Valentin Ionescu, Unic Management Consulting, Romania
 * Loredana Ivan, University of Bucharest, Romania
 * Narcis Jeler, Ministry of Environment, Romania
 * Iulia Maries, Executive Agency for Higher Education and Research Funding, Romania
 * Gheorghe Marmureanu, National Institute for Earth Physics, Romania
 * Aura Matei, Center for Institutional Analysis and Development, Romania
 * Marius Matei, Esade Business School, Barcelona, Spain
 * Marius Mihailescu, Tiffin University, USA
 * Dumitru Iulian Nastac, Politehnica University of Bucharest, Romania
 * Adrian Pop, National School of Political Studies and Public Administration, Romania
 * Sergiu Porcescu, Academy of Science of Moldova, Republic of Moldova
 * Gabriela Prelipcean, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania
 * Ionut Purica, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romania
 * Gabriel Radu, National School of Political Studies and Public Administration, Romania
 * Marius Stefan, Politehnica University of Bucharest, Romania
 * Vlad Tarko, Center for Institutional Analysis and Development, Romania
 * Horia Terpe, Center for Institutional Analysis and Development, Romania
 * Marian Zulean, Executive Agency for Higher Education and Research Funding, Romania

Day 1
19.00 Welcome cocktail

Day 2
09:00 - 09:15 A welcome speech by Adrian Curaj Introducing the programme of the conference-workshop and explaining the logic and role of the event by putting it in the larger context of the future-oriented “Quality and Leadership in Romanian Higher Education” project by Radu Gheorghiu and Paul Dragos Aligica, the moderator of the event. 9:15 - 10:30 The Black Swan and Beyond: the limits of predicting human action in an ever-increasing web of complexity by Mark Blyth 09:15 - 09:45 Mark Blyth presentation 09:45 - 10:30 Questions, answers, comments 10:30 - 10:45 Break 10:45 - 12:00 Global Warming: scientific forecasting or forecasting by scientists? by Scott Armstrong 10:45 - 11:15 Scott Armstrong presentation 11:15 - 12:00 Questions, answers, comments 12:00 - 13:00 Lunch Break 13:00 - 14:15 Forecasts and Judgement: What experts can and can’t do by Robert Evans 13:00 - 13:30 Robert Evans presentation 13:30 - 14:15 Questions, answers, comments

14:15 - 14:30 Break 14:30 - 15:45 Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts: politics, business, military... by Kesten C. Green 14:30 - 15:00 Kesten C. Green presentation 15:00 - 15:45 Questions, answers, comments

15:45 - 16:00 Break

16:00 - 17:15 Validating the quality of scenario methods by Peter Bishop 16:00 - 16:30 Peter Bishop presentation 16:30 - 17:15 Questions, answers, comments

Day 3
09:00 - 11:00 Electoral and Political Forecasting: Pollywote and Beyond

''The Fiscal Model and Case Study. The 2010 contest for the US congress: comparing experts with models'' by Alfred G. Cuzán

The use of expert judgment in forecasting elections by Randall J. Jones, Jr.

Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Ability to Handle Issues by Andreas Graefe

09:00 - 10:00 Presentations 10:00 - 10:45 Questions, answers, comments 11:00 - 11:15 Break 11:15 - 12:30 Final colloquium: Comments, conclusions, further steps 12:30 Lunch and the Conclusion of the Event